Gold Continues to Rise: Analysis and Trading Advice for Gold and Silver

Gold Market Trend Analysis

The global financial market continues to operate amidst uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and market concerns about energy demand are key factors driving market trends. As major institutions release their latest analyses and forecasts, fluctuations in the gold, foreign exchange, and crude oil markets become increasingly apparent. The market is now widely betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting. The latest CME FedWatch Tool shows that the market's expectation for this rate cut has reached as high as 90%. This news of consecutive rate cuts has, to some extent, aided the gold bulls. Therefore, in recent trading sessions, we can see a bias towards buying gold on dips, and there is reason for gold's upward momentum.

Technical Level: Looking at the 4-hour line, the lowest test last night was around 2709. From the Fibonacci retracement of this wave's rally, last night's pullback was between 38.2% and 23.6%, and it touched the previous top-bottom conversion level near 2714, which was also the low point in the early morning of this Tuesday, forming a double bottom support effect. Therefore, compared to the daily rally in recent times, the pullback's strength is slightly greater, but overall, it has not destroyed the momentum for the bulls to continue to rise higher.

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Gold Strategy:

The key trading suggestion for the market is to go short near the break of 2740-2745 and to go long at the low levels of 2710-2715. Focus on the resistance level of 2770-2775 above and the support level of 2700-2705 below.

Crude Oil Strategy:

US crude oil continues to rebound, recovering more than 1% of the previous trading day's losses after the release of US crude oil inventory data, which was much higher than expected. It tests the box pressure and has not yet broken through the moving average. Although the EIA inventory data showed a significant increase, it did not affect the rebound sentiment of oil prices. After falling back, the prices continue to rise. The resumption of inflation expectations in commodities suggests the possibility of further rebound in oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the emotional changes in geopolitical situations. The ongoing concern about the potential oil supply risks caused by conflicts in the Middle East has offset the impact of increased crude oil inventories on prices to some extent. Overall, the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" survey shows that from September to early October, there was almost no change in US economic activity, and there was a slight increase in corporate hiring, continuing the recent trend. This has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will choose a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points in two weeks. A series of recent economic data on consumer spending, employment growth, and inflation have been stronger than expected, leading investors to adjust their bets on the pace and magnitude of US rate cuts.

Technical Analysis of Crude Oil:

Last week, the weekly line of crude oil closed lower with a medium-sized negative candle, giving up nearly half of the previous rebound space and returning to the low point to seek support. After a wave of consecutive positive daily rebounds, there was a wave of consecutive negative rebounds. The rebound was just a correction, and the rebound was still weak. Crude oil has fallen weakly back to the lower track of a wide range, and after the rebound was under pressure, it was converted to weakness. It is now close to the low point support and testing the strength of the low point's defense. The current small cycle structure is a bit weak, with a step-by-step rebound on the 4-hour chart. Looking at the 4-hour level of crude oil, the Bollinger Bands are gradually opening upwards. The short-term trend first looks at the 4-hour Bollinger Bands range for consolidation, and then the trend continuation is seen after the break. The Middle East geopolitical issue remains unresolved, and considering the many factors affecting investor expectations to swing, market volatility is expected to increase further. Although oil prices have rebounded, the market still lacks clear guidance, and there is no driver to change the震荡格局. It is suggested to keep patience and wait for a definite opportunity, and participate cautiously. In summary, today's operation idea for crude oil is to focus on low-level long positions after pulling back, and high-level short positions after rebounding. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance level of 72.5-73.5 above, and the support level of 70.5-69.5 below. Specific entry points will be given in real-time in the live disk!Spot Silver -

The silver market opened yesterday at the position of 34.833 and then the market slightly rose to the position of 34.685. After that, the market strongly fell back, with the daily low reaching 33.418. At the end of the day, the market rebounded, and the daily line finally closed at the position of 33.681. The market ended with a large bearish candlestick with a very long lower shadow. With such a pattern, the daily line is bearish, and today's market has pressure to fall back. Today's suggestion is to go short at 34.35, with a stop loss at 34.55. The target below is to see 33.4. If it breaks through, it will see 33.15 and then the support at 32.9.