Gold Continues to Rise: Analysis and Trading Advice for Gold and Silver

Gold Market Trend Analysis -

Looking ahead to this week, investors will face a multitude of risk events, with the United States set to release the non-farm employment report, GDP data, and PCE inflation data. The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. Any signs indicating a cooling U.S. economy could push the market to increase bets on consecutive rate cuts in the coming meetings. However, if economic growth remains strong, and more notably, PCE inflation shows some stickiness, bets on rate cuts may suffer further setbacks. Finally, the highlight of the week—the October non-farm employment report—will be released this Friday. Following a stable increase of 254,000 in September, it is expected that the U.S. labor market will create 140,000 new jobs in October, marking a significant slowdown in job growth. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, and the average hourly wage growth is expected to slightly decelerate from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month. However, personal income and consumption data to be released on the same day will provide more clues for Federal Reserve policymakers, and the Challenger job cuts in October and the third-quarter labor cost index will also be closely watched. As the Federal Reserve's November policy decision approaches, this week's data will serve as a timely update on the strength of the U.S. economy and progress in inflation.

Technical Level: Last week, gold continued to rise and set a new high at 2758, with a small positive candle on the weekly chart. Currently, the weekly chart has three consecutive positive candles, and the bullish pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, as long as it remains above the 5-week line, the outlook remains bullish. Looking at the daily level, gold reached a high of 2758 on Wednesday last week and then formed a retracement, touching a low of 2708. Subsequently, the market was consolidative on Thursday and Friday, with the overall daily structure still in a bullish trend. In the short term, the bullish momentum has slowed, and after a short-term consolidation, the market faces a re-direction choice. The daily Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, and the moving average crossover is a bullish signal. The secondary indicator Stoch is severely overbought, and the MACD top divergence is a bearish signal. Whether the market is consolidating for an upward push or consolidating for a subsequent decline, it is necessary to first pay attention to the breakout situation of the 2758-2708 range before making a decision. For the short term, maintain a震荡偏强 mindset.

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Gold Strategy -

The key advice for the market is to go short near 2740-2745 and go long at 2710-2715 on dips. Focus on the resistance at 2760-2765 in the day, and pay close attention to the support near 2710-2715.

Crude Oil Strategy -

U.S. crude oil continues to rebound, recovering more than 1% of the previous trading day's losses after the U.S. announced a higher-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories, testing the box pressure. It has not yet broken through the moving average. Although the EIA inventory data increased significantly, it did not affect the rebound sentiment of oil prices. After the pullback, the prices continued to rise. The resumption of inflation expectations for commodities suggests the possibility of further rebound in oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the emotional changes in geopolitical situations. As refineries end their seasonal autumn maintenance, the amount of refining further increases, and distillate oil slightly decreased last week. The ongoing concern over potential oil supply risks due to conflicts in the Middle East has somewhat offset the impact of increased crude oil inventories on prices. Overall, the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" survey shows that from September to early October, U.S. economic activity has hardly changed, and hiring by businesses has slightly increased, continuing the recent trend. This reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will choose to cut rates by a smaller margin of 25 basis points in two weeks. A series of recent economic data on consumer spending, employment growth, and inflation have been stronger than expected, leading investors to adjust their bets on the pace and magnitude of U.S. rate cuts.

Technical Analysis of Crude Oil:

Last Friday's daily chart with upper and lower shadows pierced through the middle rail and the moving average convergence point, representing a still consolidative price trend. Currently, the daily indicator MACD is in a bearish crossover with volume, and the STO is pointing downward, representing a consolidative but weak trend on the daily chart. In the short term, pay attention to the suppression at the convergence of the moving average MA60 and the middle rail at 72.2. The 4-hour chart currently shows a bearish crossover with MACD volume, and the STO is quickly moving downward to the oversold area, representing a consolidative but weak trend on the 4-hour chart. In the short term, pay attention to the support at yesterday's low of 69.7. The hourly chart currently shows a bearish crossover with MACD volume reduction and convergence, and the STO is quickly moving downward to repair, representing a downward probe of yesterday's low on the hourly chart. If it does not break down, it may be accompanied by a consolidative rebound. Overall, the operation idea for crude oil today is to take advantage of rebounds for high selling and pullbacks for low buying. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance at 69.5-70.0, and in the short term, pay attention to the support at 67.5-67.0.

Spot Silver -The silver market opened last week at 33.675 and initially rose, with the highest weekly touch reaching 34.873 before the market strongly retraced. The lowest weekly touch was at 33.043 before the market consolidated. The weekly close was at 33.647, forming a shooting star pattern with an extremely long upper shadow. Following this pattern, there is a bearish demand in the market for the current week on the weekly chart. If the market rises today and reaches 34.35, it is recommended to go short, with a stop loss at 34.55. The target for the downside is 33.55 and 33.3.