Gold Opens Low, Rises, Then Falls: Analysis &操作建议 for Gold & Silver

Gold Market Trend Analysis -

Looking ahead to this week, investors are set to face a multitude of risk events, with the United States releasing the non-farm employment report, GDP data, and PCE inflation data. The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. Any indication that the U.S. economy is cooling down could push the market to increase bets on consecutive rate cuts in the next few meetings. However, if economic growth remains strong, and more notably, PCE inflation shows some stickiness, bets on rate cuts may be further undermined. Finally, the highlight of the week—the October non-farm employment report—will be released this Friday. After a stable increase of 254,000 in September, it is expected that the U.S. labor market will create 140,000 new jobs in October, marking a significant slowdown in job growth. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, and the average hourly wage growth is expected to slightly decelerate from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month. However, personal income and consumption data to be released on the same day will provide more clues for Federal Reserve policymakers, and the Challenger job cuts in October and the third-quarter labor cost index will also be watched. As the Federal Reserve's November policy decision approaches, this week's data will serve as a timely update on the strength of the U.S. economy and progress in inflation.

Technical Level: Last week, gold continued to rise and set a new high at the 2758 mark, with a small positive candlestick on the weekly chart. Currently, there are three consecutive positive weeks, and the bullish pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, as long as it stays above the 5-week line, the outlook remains bullish. Looking at the daily level, gold surged to 2758 last Wednesday and then retreated, touching a low of 2708. Subsequently, the market fluctuated on Thursday and Friday, with the overall daily structure still bullish. However, the short-term upward momentum of the bulls has slowed, and after a short-term consolidation, the market faces a new direction. The daily Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, and the moving average golden cross is a bullish signal. The secondary indicator stoch is severely overbought, and the MACD top divergence is a bearish signal. Whether the market is consolidating and preparing to rise or consolidating before falling, it is necessary to first pay attention to the breakage of the 2758-2708 range before making a decision. In the short term, maintain a震荡偏强 mindset.

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Gold Ideas -

The key recommendation for the market is to go short near 2740-2745 and go long at 2710-2715 when the market is low. Focus on the resistance at 2760-2765 in the day, and pay close attention to the support near 2710-2715.

Crude Oil Ideas -

U.S. crude oil continues to rebound, recovering more than 1% of the previous trading day's losses after the U.S. announced a higher-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories, testing the box pressure. It has not yet broken through the moving average. Although the EIA inventory data increased significantly, it did not affect the rebound sentiment of oil prices. After falling, it continued to rise. The resumption of inflation expectations for commodities suggests that there is a possibility of further rebound in oil prices. Continue to pay attention to changes in geopolitical sentiment during the day. As refineries end their seasonal autumn maintenance, refining volumes continue to rise, and distillate oil slightly decreased last week. Persistent concerns about potential oil supply risks from conflicts in the Middle East have offset the impact of increased crude oil inventories on prices to some extent. Overall, the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" survey shows that from September to early October, U.S. economic activity has hardly changed, and corporate hiring has increased slightly, continuing the recent trend. This has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will choose to cut rates by a smaller margin of 25 basis points in two weeks. A series of recent economic data on consumer spending, employment growth, and inflation have been stronger than expected, leading investors to adjust their bets on the pace and magnitude of U.S. rate cuts.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis:

Last Friday's daily chart with upper and lower shadows pierced the middle rail and the moving average convergence point, representing a震荡走势 in prices. The current daily indicator MACD is a death cross with volume, and the STO is downward, representing a震荡偏弱 trend on the daily chart. In the short term, pay attention to the suppression of the moving average MA60 and the middle rail convergence at 72.2. The current 4-hour MACD is a death cross with volume, and the STO is quickly downward to the oversold area, representing a震荡偏弱 trend on the 4-hour chart. In the short term, pay attention to the support at yesterday's low of 69.7. The current hourly MACD is a death cross with volume convergence, and the STO is quickly downward to repair, representing a downward probe of yesterday's low on the hourly chart. If it does not break down, it may be accompanied by a震荡反弹. Overall, the crude oil operation idea today is to take advantage of the rebound high and the回踩 low, with a focus on resistance at 69.5-70.0 in the short term, and support at 67.5-67.0 in the short term.

Spot Silver -The silver market opened last week at 33.675 and initially rose, with the weekly high reaching 34.873 before the market strongly retraced. The weekly low was at 33.043 before the market consolidated. The week closed at 33.647, forming a shooting star pattern with a very long upper shadow, indicating a bearish demand for the market on the weekly chart. If the market rises today and reaches 34.35, it is recommended to go short with a stop loss at 34.55, and the target is to look for 33.55 and 33.3 below.